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BIPE and cross-industry forecasts
For more than 40 years, BIPE has offered to decision-makers a consistent set of short, medium and long-term macro-economic and sector forecasts. These forecasts, produced for the 4 main European countries (Germany, France, Italy, United-Kingdom), the Euro zone and the EU as a whole, describe the evolution of more than 30 business sectors and the economy in general in each of the countries, on a quarterly basis.
The cyclical evolution of the sectors is analysed in detail and compared with the general economic cycle, in order to highlight the relations between the different sectors and to specify the sectors which are at the origin of the economic recovery and those which will follow, even if it they sometimes lag behind by two or three quarters.
BIPE forecasts are presented in the framework of different clubs, in particular the "General Economic Forecasts" club and the "Sector Dynamics" club.
These forecasts provide decision-makers with a consistent set of information that can be used as a basis for drawing up their budgets, as well as for elaborating key business indicators or market monitoring systems. They are based on econometric models which ensure their global consistency and make it possible to test the sensitivity of the different sectors to external shocks such as changes in ECB interest rates, changes in exchange rates or capacity constraints of one or another sector. They are vetted by BIPE sector experts.
These forecasts always take into consideration regulatory, managerial or other constraints.
Therefore, the approach used combines quantitative analyses (based on models) and qualitative analysis in a consistent context. It includes:
- cyclical analyses and the preparation of short and medium-term forecasts;
- a more structural, in-depth analysis of the change factors (socio-demographic trends, the new economy, etc.) and the strategies of companies in the face of these changes.
The Clubs:
- Purchasing club
- "General Economic Forecasts" club
- "Sector Dynamics” club.
The analyses and assumptions contained in the documents prepared for the members of the clubs are debated between participants and with BIPE’s sector experts.
Contact:
Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Partner, email : elisabeth.rocha@bipe.fr
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